Thursday, July 24, 2008

Reformed Alarmist: Global Warming Not Anthropogenic

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.:

I DEVOTED six years to carbon accounting, building models for the Australian Greenhouse Office. I am the rocket scientist who wrote the carbon accounting model (FullCAM) that measures Australia's compliance with the Kyoto Protocol, in the land use change and forestry sector.

FullCAM models carbon flows in plants, mulch, debris, soils and agricultural products, using inputs such as climate data, plant physiology and satellite data. I've been following the global warming debate closely for years.

When I started that job in 1999 the evidence that carbon emissions caused global warming seemed pretty good: CO2 is a greenhouse gas, the old ice core data, no other suspects.

The evidence was not conclusive, but why wait until we were certain when it appeared we needed to act quickly? Soon government and the scientific community were working together and lots of science research jobs were created. We scientists had political support, the ear of government, big budgets, and we felt fairly important and useful (well, I did anyway). It was great. We were working to save the planet.

But since 1999 new evidence has seriously weakened the case that carbon emissions are the main cause of global warming, and by 2007 the evidence was pretty conclusive that carbon played only a minor role and was not the main cause of the recent global warming. As Lord Keynes famously said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

In the brilliance of daylight, the straw man arguments that socialist power-grabbers like Al Gore have put up are withering away. Even ideologically motivated scientists can only lie to themselves for so long.

I wonder how long it will be, now, until the global warming movement is well known to be an utter and complete hoax? And how long from that point will it be, then, to the time of backlash and anger for the fast one they pulled on everybody? My guess is that, unfortunately, due to widespread media support it will never get that far.