Monday, July 02, 2007

Good News

Good news out of Iraq: Civilian deaths down, insurgent deaths up coinciding with the surge. That's how its supposed to work, right?

The latest numbers, compiled from interior, defence and health ministry figures and made available to AFP, indicate that 1,241 civilians died last month, compared to 1,951 in the previous month.
The gloom 'n doom media can't stand it though, and have to follow up with this piece of propaganda in the next paragraph.
However, car and roadside bombings allegedly carried out by Sunni insurgents continue to rock Baghdad and neighbouring provinces, with at least three people killed on Sunday.
Don't get too excited, America. You can't win this war, remember?

Au contraire, mis amigos. In addition to dropping civilian casualties, we have massive amounts of progress going on in the Pink to White counterinsurgency operations taking place in Baghdad. Baghdad is the nose ring of Iraq -- control the head, and you control the rest of the nation. And our nose piercing operations are proceeding ahead of schedule:
Fil said American and Iraqi security forces now control 48% to 49% of the 474 neighborhoods in Baghdad. That is up from 19% in April, he said. Two weeks ago his boss, Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, said about 40% of the city was under control.

Fil defined "control" as "where we have our security forces there and we're denying that space to enemy forces."

U.S. and Iraqi forces are conducting clearing operations in 36% of the capital's neighborhoods — about the same percentage as in April, he said. In neighborhoods that are neither under control nor in the process of being cleared, coalition forces are "disrupting" insurgent forces, Fil said.
Now unwarranted extrapolation is stupidity's evil step cousin, but I'll employ some here. Assuming we've got a case of diminishing returns (i.e. you can't ever really kill all the roaches in the house) and Baghdad will always have its share of unrest, you could make a reasonably wild prediction that we may have it under effective 100% control by October.

Patraeus may well be the man of the hour by November '08.